Example 21
Last updated at March 11, 2017 by Teachoo
Transcript
Example 21 A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six. Let S1 : man speaks the truth S2 : man lies E : six on the die We need to find the Probability that it is actually a six, if the man reports that it a six i.e. P(S1|E) P(S1|E) = 𝑃 𝑆1.𝑃(𝐸| 𝑆1)𝑃 𝑆1.𝑃(𝐸| 𝑆1)+𝑃 𝑆2.𝑃(𝐸| 𝑆2) Putting value in formula, P(S1|E) = P(S1) . P(E|S1) P(S1) . P(E|S1) + P(S2) . P(E|S2) = 34 × 16 34 × 16 + 14 × 56 = 14 × 16 × 3 14 × 16 3 + 5 = 38 Therefore, required probability is 𝟑𝟖
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Chapter 13 Class 12 Probability
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About the Author
CA Maninder Singh
CA Maninder Singh is a Chartered Accountant for the past 8 years. He provides courses for Practical Accounts, Taxation and Efiling at teachoo.com .