Example 6 - Chapter 7 - The Mathematics of Maybe: Introduction to Probability

Transcript

Example 6 Let us say you are playing Snakes and Ladders, and you are rolling a fair 6-sided die to move. You have just rolled the die three times in a row, and each time you got a 6. Now, you think: ‘I have already rolled three 6s — there is no way I will get a 6 again on the next roll!’ This is Gambler’s Fallacy: previous results has no relation to the next event. The die has no memory Thus, Probability of getting a 6 in die = (𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑤𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑔𝑒𝑡 6)/(𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑑𝑖𝑒) =𝟏/𝟔 Thus, probability doesn’t change based on what happened in previous turns.